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National Weather Service Resources

Presentation on "The 2021 Hurricane Season: Predicted Impact & Resilience Scenarios"

2021 NWS Partnership Strategy & Webinar Recordings

2021 NOAA Update on National Hurricane Center Products & Services

Press Release: NOAA predicts another active Atlantic hurricane season

2021 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (click here to view) is predicting another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.
  • Forecasters predict a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. However, experts do not anticipate the historic level of storm activity seen in 2020. 
  • For 2021, a likely range of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher) is expected. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.
    • Last month, NOAA updated the statistics (click here to view) used to determine when hurricane seasons are above-, near-, or below-average relative to the latest climate record. Based on this update an average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which 7 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes
  • The Atlantic hurricane season extends from June 1 through November 30. 
  • The Climate Prediction Center will update the 2021 Atlantic seasonal outlook in August prior to the historical peak of the season.

2021 Central Pacific Hurricane Outlook

  • There is a 45% chance of near-normal tropical cyclone activity during the Central Pacific hurricane season this year, according to NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, divisions of the National Weather Service. The outlook also indicates a 35% chance for below-normal activity, and 20% chance of an above-normal season.
  • For the season as a whole, 2 to 5 tropical cyclones are predicted for the Central Pacific hurricane region. This number includes tropical depressions, named storms and hurricanes. 
    • A near-normal season has 4 or 5 tropical cyclones.
  • The Central Pacific hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through November 30.

2021 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlook

  • NOAA's 2021 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season outlook indicates a near- or below-normal season most likely (80% combined chance). There is a 45% chance of a near-normal season and a 35% chance of a below-normal season, followed by a 20% chance of an above-normal season.
  • The 2021 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity:
    • 12-18 Named Storms
    • 5-10 Hurricanes
    • 2-5 Major Hurricanes
    • Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 65%-120% of the median.
  • The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially runs from May 15th through November 30th. The peak months of the season are July-September.